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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • The thing with cognitive dissonance is also a bit more subtle than just the duality of conflicting beliefs. It can often arise from unidentified conflicts that are outside of your conscious self awareness.

    One that I am familiar with is religion. I knew a whole lot about the bible and christianity growing up. From an early age I halfway knew things like how, when I looked at road cuts through bedrock, those layers hinted at deep time and held a story that wasn’t well alined with my beliefs. Then there was my love of dinosaurs as a kid and that too did not mesh with my religious narrative. Each little element of conflict was present on some subconscious like level, and my life became partitioned between this narrative belief system and evidence based reality. I had lots of peripheral consequences in life due to this building conflict, but I never allowed the core issue to come to a head in an attempt to rectify the disparity until I was around 30 years old.

    Cognitive dissonance can also be dangerous and is a contributing factor in many crimes and heinous acts humans commit. Alternative expressions of individuality may also have an origin in cognitive dissonance. Identification of these underlying conflicts is reflective of a person’s self awareness and can help one improve one’s mental health by taking productive action to resolve inner conflicts after identification.



  • It honestly sounds like you’ve got deeper issues with your boss. I would just shop for another job.

    I’m quite introverted and have learned to only respond to questions when asked. I have no issue sharing any information. However, I have a major issue with understanding the scope of information worth sharing and when to stop. I do not let myself feel awkward in silence or the need to carry any conversation. If a person piques my curiosity, I can talk with them for days. I can find something curious to talk about with almost anyone. People that lack depth become a repetitive conversation that I will avoid.

    Personally, I don’t like to be actively manipulative with people. It goes against my nature. However, if someone annoyed me like this, and I had no other outlet. I would subtly use their psychology against them about like how a psychiatrist turns a conversation to introspection and analysis. Once a person is made vulnerable through unexpected introspection they are easily dominated. I can get away with a lot of things like this because I am a big dude where people expect me to be assertive and dominant in many ways that I really am not. Your results may vary.


  • I wouldn’t start with python. Just do bash scripting. Python is inaccessible still if you do not use it regularly and it still has the ridiculous complexity problems of all languages.

    I think the scope of all computing is hard for anyone to take in effectively. It really takes something like Ben Eater’s 8-bit breadboard computer project (YT) for a person to really start understanding fundamental computing.

    My favorite microcontroller experience is Flash Forth. You can put it on an Arduino with an ATMega 328 too. The simplicity of FORTH can teach a ton in a short amount of time because it gets a person straight into access to bits, registers, and assembly, along with the hardware documentation. Once FF is on the microcontroller, it is running the FF interpreter natively. At that point, you only need serial access through USB. It is quite easy to flash an LED, read the ADC and setup basic I/O. Branching and loops are a bit more difficult. This eliminates the need for a language that uses a lot of arbitrary syntax. It does not require a lot of documentation, and you do not need to fuss with an Integrated Development Environment.

    I would focus on the ideas, that anyone can count to 1 and anyone can break down logic into if statements. It might be bad code, but bad code is better than no code when it comes to someone getting started.


  • Comes up and puts a paw on my arm or leg, but only when she feels the problem is serious. It could be water, food, liter box, or just a notion that I need to give attention due to hours working on some project or something; usually when I’m seriously hurting or sleep deprived. I’m always present, only ever leaving for doctors or a physical therapy routine. I’m accessible for both cats most of the time. The older seems to intuit not to abuse the gesture or use it often. When she does put her paw on me like that, I always look into the issue, so we’ve developed it as a form of direct communication that seems to work. I didn’t train her to do this, I did however train her to be quiet using positive reinforcement. We got the older cat about 6 months after I was disabled, so we’ve been through a lot together in the last 10 years.


  • You're asking the wrong questions IMO. No one loves capitalism. Capitalism is an acknowledgment that humans are inherently corrupt and the concentration of power is a primary corrupting force. If anything the capitalist countries are failing at capitalism in the present.

    Capitalism is also an acknowledgement of the true complexity of the world. No overarching human authority can encompass the true complexity of human enterprises. We simply lack the cognitive scope to manage at all scales without some forms of natural selection in play. Real competition drives people like no other force.

    It is a terrible system, but there is no chance that a concentration of power in an alternative system will be better for the average person. Broad scale and scope altruism is not a long term successful form of governance. It is like the best form of governance, altruistic monarchy. However it suffers the same fatal flaw of a succession crisis. The naïveté of idealist is a recipe for authoritarianism.

    No one loves capitalism. If they are intelligent, capitalism is the lesser of evils in the big picture. The alternative is a return to monarchy or feudalism in our conflict strewn past… IMO

    I hate capitalism BTW. I don’t think we are there yet, but I think AGI is our best chance at a broad scale idealist future alternative. An entity that can never die and can plan long term with scalable and nearly infinite attention is the kind of manager that can achieve what we are empirically incapable of achieving. The systems it will take to institute and protect such an AGI are enormous, critical, and unlikely to get it right the first time, but the outcome is inevitable IMO. We will likely never see such a future in our lifetimes, but it will happen eventually. It will start by politicians either publicly or secretly deferring their policy and decisions to an AGI entity. Corporate offices will do the same. Humans can not compete with a true AGI when such a system emerges. We simply lack the cognitive scope and persistence. At present, AI is still orders of magnitude away from AGI. At the present the building blocks required are already in play. We can build a stacked stone wall and a house, but we need a palatial fortress, and that is still a big ask.

    Capitalism sucks for all but a small elite. However, capitalism has an effective hook for people to oust bad actors through a entirely separate government. Such separation and protection does not exist when the government is expected to play some major management role in the market. If the government is such an authority, it will devolve into authoritarianism because nearly all humans are corruptible. There is nothing more dangerous than trust in others to do the right thing. Someone will always take advantage of the opportunity to exploit and pillage their neighbors when they can get away with it. Capitalism is hated by everyone but fools. It is just hated slightly less than succession crises and authoritarianism.


  • Don’t underestimate the stupidity curve. There are always more people at the bottom. Just because a candidate is a worthless criminal, does not mean an inevitable outcome. Squeaky wheels get the attention the others deserve. He has already proven that people follow him anywhere like headless zombies.

    I’m sure there is a contingency plan with the weirdo party. There is no shortage of criminals without any ethics ready to boost their cronyism clown posse.


  • We are at a phase where AI is like the first microprocessors; think Apple II or Commodore 64 era hardware. These showed potential, but it was only truly useful with lots of peripheral systems and an enormous amount of additional complexity. Most of the time, advanced systems beyond the cheap consumer toys of this era used several of the processors and other systems together.

    Similarly, now AI as we have access to it, is capable, but has a narrow scope. Making it useful requires a ton of specialized peripherals. These are called RAG and agents. RAG is augmented retrieval of information from a database. Agents are collections of multiple AI’s to do a given task where they have different jobs and complement each other.

    It is currently possible to make a very highly specialized AI agent for a niche task and have it perform okay within the publicly available and well documented tool chains, but it is still hard to realize. Such a system must use info that was already present in the base training. Then there are ways to improve access to this information through further training.

    With RAG, it is super difficult to subdivide a reference source into chunks that will allow the AI to find the relevant information in complex ways. Generally this takes a ton of tuning to get it right.

    The AI tools available publicly are extremely oversimplified to make them accessible. All are based around the Transformers library. Go read the first page of Transformers documentation on Hugging Face’s website. It clearly states that it is only a basic example implementation that prioritizes accessibility over completeness. In truth, if the real complexity of these systems was made the default interface we all see, no one would play with AI at all. Most people, myself included, struggle with sed and complex regular expressions. AI in its present LLM form is basically turning all of human language into a solvable math problem using regular expressions and equations. This is the ultimate nerd battle between English teachers and Math teachers where the math teachers have won the war; all language is now math too.

    I’ve been trying to learn this stuff for over a year and barely scratched the surface of what is possible just in the model loader code that preprocess the input. There is a ton going on under the surface. All errors are anything but if you get into the weeds. Models do not hallucinate in the sense that most people see errors. The errors are due to the massive oversimplifications made to make the models accessible in a general context. The AI alignment problem is a thing and models do hallucinate but the scientific meaning is far more nuanced and specific than the common errors from generalized use.





  • Intent matters.

    Do you want to claim you found master of the universe? You better have evidence of the cosmological constants that are the building blocks of the entire universe.

    No religion on Earth has ever possessed ontological knowledge prior to the scientific discoveries of these fundamental building blocks. These are the true signature of origin. Every bit of information contained within religions can be explained by direct human observation and meddling. It would be very easy to prove divinity by relating such ontological information.

    In terms of history, it is always written by the winner. The accuracy is only found in aggregate.

    The best times to live are the times when there was nothing of note. The worst times to live are always eras with memorable names of individuals. Only the worst of humans stand out from the fray and plaster themselves on the wall of history. To say Genghis Khan did not exist is not a measuring of the man, but a fool that claims the giant shit stain on the wall does not stink.






  • That is not how real point of sale systems and stores operate in practice. I actually managed a retail chain of bike shops as the Buyer and back office manager. I was the one maintaining the point of sale connections and system. There are always errors in these systems largely due to new and incompetent sales staff that sell/return/enter duplicates of the wrong items. They can enter almost anything wrong, from gender to color, from model year to brand. I’ve seen them all.

    Connecting these systems online is an absolute nightmare. I tried it with shopify, but had to limit the sku’s to items I could completely control with minimal intervention from other staff. Generally speaking, the POS system in a local retail store can be more loosely managed where the staff can make up the gaps and mistakes when the POS system numbers do not perfectly match the local stock. If you want to track inventory like is required for online retail, you need a whole different kind of micromanagement and responsibility from staff. You also need something like quarterly inventory audits. These are quite time consuming and are a total loss in the labor time involved.

    For online retail to be competitive, the margins with e-tail are absolutely untenable trash for brick and mortar retail. They are not even close. The biggest expenses are the commercial space rent and labor costs. With e-tail, the labor is less skilled, and the space is a cheap warehouse somewhere remote. General retail margins must be 40%+ while e-tail is 15-20%. The two are completely incompatible. This is why real quality brands do not sell e-tail. It has to do with how distribution and preseason wholesale buying works. There is more complexity to this, but overall the two are not compatible. In fact, most high quality brands will not allow most of their products to be listed online except under certain circumstances. This is to keep things fair to all parties and prevent undercutting based on whomever has the lowest overhead cost.

    Selling online is only for low end junk and certain circumstances. If you are a high end consumer, you will likely understand this already. It is hard to produce high end goods and distribute them successfully. It takes local Buyers that know their niche market and can do massive preseason spending to collectively give the manufacturer an idea of what they need to produce at what scale. Otherwise, the business will not last long, or they must produce lower end and more reliable/limited products. This strategy will likewise fail due to over saturation of the market segment. It is far more complex than most people realize.


  • I think, printing more money under the same conditions is the primary inflation/devalue, while the federal interest rate determines the baseline for loan interest rates. If the federal rate of return is high, it makes no sense for anyone to buy loans for a lower rate as the US gov has a longer upstanding record of paying back those debts/returns. If the fed is paying a high baseline rate, so is everyone else. Why would a bank or anyone buy your debt if they can put that money in government bonds and get a higher or the same rate of return. So money is expensive because the federal rate is high. At least that is my most simple understanding.